Sayed Abdullah

Ubukungu bwa Vietnam ni ubwa 44 ku isi kandi kuva hagati mu myaka ya 1980, Vietnam yagize impinduka zikomeye iva ku bukungu bushingiye ku buyobozi buhuriweho cyane, iterwa inkunga n'ubukungu bushingiye ku isoko ryigenga.

Ntibitangaje kuba ari kimwe mu bihugu ubukungu bw’isi bwiyongera cyane, aho umusaruro rusange w’igihugu ushobora kwiyongeraho hafi 5.1% buri mwaka, ibi bikaba byatuma ubukungu bwacyo buba ubwa 20 ku isi mu bunini mu 2050.

Nubwo bimeze gutyo, ijambo rivugwa cyane ku isi ni uko Vietnam yiteguye kuba imwe mu nganda nini zikora ibintu byinshi, ikaba ishobora no gufata Ubushinwa mu ntambwe ikomeye mu bukungu.

Ikigaragara ni uko Vietnam iri kuzamuka nk'ihuriro ry'inganda muri ako karere, cyane cyane mu nzego nk'imyenda n'inkweto n'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga.

Ku rundi ruhande, kuva mu myaka ya za 80, Ubushinwa bwagize uruhare mu gukora inganda ku isi yose, bufite ibikoresho fatizo byinshi, abakozi n'ubushobozi bw'inganda. Iterambere ry'inganda ryitaweho cyane aho inganda zikora imashini n'izikora ibyuma zahawe umwanya wa mbere.

Kubera ko umubano hagati ya Washington na Beijing uri mu kugabanuka k’umusaruro, ahazaza h’urusobe rw’ibicuruzwa ku isi ni hatoroshye. Nubwo ubutumwa butazwi bw’Inzu Nkuru y’Ubumwe bw’Amerika bukomeje gutera ibibazo ku bijyanye n’icyerekezo cya politiki y’ubucuruzi ya Amerika, imisoro ku ntambara y’ubucuruzi iracyakora.

Hagati aho, ingaruka z’itegeko ry’umutekano w’igihugu ryatanzwe na Beijing, rishobora kubangamira ubwigenge bwa Hong Kong, zirushaho gushyira mu kaga amasezerano y’ubucuruzi y’icyiciro cya mbere asanzwe adakomeye hagati y’ibihugu byombi by’ibihangange. Tutibagiwe no kuzamuka kw’ibiciro by’abakozi bivuze ko Ubushinwa buzakurikirana inganda ziciriritse zikoresha abakozi benshi.

Ubu buryo bugoye, bujyanye n'isiganwa ryo gushaka ibikoresho by'ubuvuzi no gutegura urukingo rwa COVID-19, burimo gutuma habaho isuzuma rishya ry'imiyoboro y'ibikoresho ikora ku gihe, ikanatanga umusaruro mwiza kurusha ibindi byose.

Muri icyo gihe, uburyo Ubushinwa bwafashe COVID-19 bwateje ibibazo byinshi mu bihugu by’iburengerazuba. Mu gihe Vietnam ari kimwe mu bihugu by’ibanze byoroshya ingamba zo kwirinda abantu no kongera gufungura umuryango wabyo kuva muri Mata 2020, aho ibihugu byinshi bitangiye guhangana n’ubukana n’ikwirakwira rya COVID-19.

Isi yose yatangajwe n'intsinzi ya Vietnam muri iki cyorezo cya COVID-19.

Icyizere cya Vietnam nk'ikigo cy'inganda

Mu gihe iki kibazo cy’isi kigenda gikura, ubukungu bw’ibihugu byo muri Aziya - Vietnam - burimo kwitegura kuba ikigo gishya mu nganda.

Vietnam yigaragaje nk'igihugu gikomeye mu guhangana n'ingaruka za COVID-19 ku isi.

Nk’uko bigaragara muri Kearney US Reshoring Index, igereranya umusaruro w’inganda zo muri Amerika n’inganda zituruka mu bihugu 14 byo muri Aziya, yazamutse cyane mu 2019, bitewe n’igabanuka rya 17% ry’ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.

Raporo y’ikinyamakuru Medium ivuga ko ishami ry’ubucuruzi ry’Abanyamerika mu Bushinwa bw’Amajyepfo ryasanze kandi ko 64% by’amasosiyete yo muri Amerika mu majyepfo y’igihugu arimo gutekereza kwimura umusaruro ahandi.

Ubukungu bwa Vietnam bwiyongereyeho 8% mu 2019, bufashijwe n’ubwiyongere bw’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga. Biteganijwe kandi ko buziyongeraho 1.5% muri uyu mwaka.

Banki y'Isi iteganya ko mu gihe cy'abarwayi ba COVID-19 hazaba hari ikibazo gikomeye cyane, umusaruro w'igihugu cya Vietnam uzagabanuka ukagera kuri 1.5% uyu mwaka, ibi bikaba ari byiza kurusha ibihugu byinshi bituranye na Aziya y'Epfo.

Uretse ibyo, hamwe no gukora cyane, gushyira ikirango cy’igihugu mu mwanya wacyo, no gushyiraho uburyo bwiza bwo gushora imari, Viyetinamu yakuruye ibigo/ishoramari by’abanyamahanga, iha inganda uburenganzira bwo gukorera mu gace k’ubucuruzi bw’ubuntu ka ASEAN ndetse n’amasezerano y’ubucuruzi yihariye n’ibihugu byo muri Aziya no mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi, ndetse na Amerika.

Uretse ibyo, mu minsi ishize igihugu cyakomeje gukora ibikoresho by’ubuvuzi ndetse gitanga inkunga zijyanye nabyo ku bihugu byagizweho ingaruka na COVID-19, ndetse no muri Amerika, Uburusiya, Esipanye, Ubutaliyani, Ubufaransa, Ubudage n’Ubwongereza.

Indi ntambwe nshya ikomeye ni amahirwe y’uko ibicuruzwa byinshi by’amasosiyete yo muri Amerika bizava mu Bushinwa bikajya muri Vietnam. Kandi igice cya Vietnam cy’imyenda itumizwa muri Amerika cyarungutse kuko igice cy’Ubushinwa ku isoko kirimo kugabanuka - igihugu cyanarenze Ubushinwa ndetse kiba icya mbere mu gucuruza imyenda muri Amerika muri Werurwe na Mata uyu mwaka.

Amakuru y’ubucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa muri Amerika bwo mu 2019 agaragaza iki kibazo, ko ibicuruzwa bya Vietnam byoherejwe muri Amerika byazamutseho 35%, ni ukuvuga miliyari 17.5 z’amadolari.

Mu myaka makumyabiri ishize, igihugu cyahindutse cyane kugira ngo gikore imirimo itandukanye. Vietnam yagiye ireka ubukungu bwayo bushingiye ku buhinzi kugira ngo iteze imbere ubukungu bushingiye ku isoko kandi bwibanda ku nganda.

Ingorane yo gutsinda

Ariko hari imbogamizi nyinshi zigomba gukemurwa niba igihugu gishaka gufatanya n'Ubushinwa.

Urugero, imiterere y’inganda zikora imirimo ihendutse muri Vietnam ishobora guteza akaga – niba igihugu kidateye imbere mu ruhererekane rw’agaciro, ibindi bihugu byo mu karere nka Bangaladeshi, Tayilande cyangwa Kamboje na byo bitanga abakozi bahendutse.

Byongeye kandi, hamwe n’imbaraga za leta zo kongera ishoramari mu nganda zigezweho n’ibikorwa remezo kugira ngo bihuzwe n’uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa ku isi, ni sosiyete ntoya mpuzamahanga (MNCs) gusa ifite ibikorwa bike by’ubushakashatsi n’iterambere (R&D) muri Vietnam.

Icyorezo cya COVID-19 cyagaragaje kandi ko Vietnam ishingiye cyane ku gutumiza ibikoresho fatizo mu mahanga kandi ko ikora gusa uruhare rwo gukora no guteranya ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga. Hatabayeho inkunga nini ijyanye n’inganda, bizaba ari inzozi nziza guhaza umusaruro nk’uw’Ubushinwa.

Uretse ibi, izindi mbogamizi zirimo ingano y’umubare w’abakozi, ubushobozi bwo kubona abakozi b’abahanga, ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ubwinshi bw’umusaruro butunguranye, n’ibindi byinshi.

Indi ngingo y'ingenzi ni ibigo bito n'ibiciriritse byo muri Vietnam - bigizwe na 93.7% by'ibigo byose - bigengwa n'amasoko mato cyane kandi ntibishobora kwagura ibikorwa byabyo kugeza ku bantu benshi. Ibi bigatuma biba ahantu hakomeye mu bihe bikomeye, kimwe n'icyorezo cya COVID-19.

Bityo rero, ni ngombwa ko abacuruzi basubira inyuma bagasubiramo ingamba zabo zo guhindura imiterere yabo - bitewe n'uko igihugu kigifite intambwe nyinshi zo kugera ku muvuduko w'Ubushinwa, ese byaba ari byiza kurushaho gukoresha ingamba za 'Ubushinwa-plus-one'?